The Great Powers and the Survival of the Liberal International Order: Four scenarios

Author
Ayabulela Dlakavu

Synopsis

This scholarly monograph examines the sustainability of the Liberal International Order (LIO) by critically examining the conduct of the Permanent Five (P5) members of the United Nations Security Council: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. As principal custodians of global peace and security under the Charter of the United Nations, the P5’s alignment, or misalignment, with the foundational principles of the LIO holds profound implications for its legitimacy and endurance.

Anchored in foreign policy analysis (FPA) and enriched by scenario-building methodologies, the research offers a rigorous, empirically grounded assessment of how Great Power behaviour shapes the evolution and potential futures of international order. By foregrounding the foreign policies of the P5 as key variables in global governance trajectories, the book provides an original contribution to scholarship on international relations, multilateralism and institutional resilience.

This work will appeal to scholars of international relations, global governance, peace and security studies, and those invested in the normative and structural futures of the international system in the 21st century and beyond.

Chapters

  • Foreword
    Bhaso Ndzendze
  • Preface
    Ayabulela Dlakavu
  • Chapter 1
    The significance of the Liberal International Order
    Ayabulela Dlakavu
  • Chapter 2
    The conceptual framework
    Ayabulela Dlakavu
  • Chapter 3
    Foundations for analysis and forecasting: The analytical and theoretical frameworks
    Ayabulela Dlakavu
  • Chapter 4
    Methods for forecasting the future of the Liberal International Order
    Ayabulela Dlakavu
  • Chapter 5
    Evaluating international orders in the nation-state era
    Ayabulela Dlakavu
  • Chapter 6
    The United Kingdom’s foreign policies since 1989 and its attitude towards the Liberal International Order
    Ayabulela Dlakavu
  • Chapter 7
    The United States of America’s foreign policies since 1989 and its attitude towards the Liberal International Order
    Ayabulela Dlakavu
  • Chapter 8
    France’s foreign policies since 1989 and its attitude towards the Liberal International Order
    Ayabulela Dlakavu
  • Chapter 9
    Russia’s foreign policies since 1989 and its attitude towards the Liberal International Order
    Ayabulela Dlakavu
  • Chapter 10
    China’s foreign policies since 1989 and its attitude towards the Liberal International Order
    Ayabulela Dlakavu
  • Chapter 11
    The future of the Liberal International Order and global governance in the 21st century and beyond
    Ayabulela Dlakavu
  • Chapter 12
    Conclusions and recommendations
    Ayabulela Dlakavu

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Copyright (c) 2025 Ayabulela Dlakavu (Author)
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ISBN-13 (15)
978-1-990982-24-8